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Thursday, February 05, 2009

50 De-Stimulating Facts Chapter and verse on a bad bill.

Senate Democrats acknowledged Wednesday that they do not have the votes to pass the stimulus bill in its current form. This is unexpected good news. The House passed the stimulus package with zero Republican votes (and even a few Democratic defections), but few expected Senate Republicans (of whom there are only 41) to present a unified front. A few moderate Democrats have reportedly joined them.

The idea that the government can spend the economy out of a recession is highly questionable, and even with Senate moderates pushing for changes, the current package is unlikely to see much improvement. Nevertheless, this presents an opportunity to remove some of the most egregious spending, to shrink some programs, and to add guidelines where the initial bill called for a blank check. Here are 50 of the most outrageous items in the stimulus package:

VARIOUS LEFT-WINGERY
The easiest targets in the stimulus bill are the ones that were clearly thrown in as a sop to one liberal cause or another, even though the proposed spending would have little to no stimulative effect. The National Endowment for the Arts, for example, is in line for $50 million, increasing its total budget by a third. The unemployed can fill their days attending abstract-film festivals and sitar concerts.Then there are the usual welfare-expansion programs that sound nice but repeatedly fail cost-benefit analyses. The bill provides $380 million to set up a rainy-day fund for a nutrition program that serves low-income women and children, and $300 million for grants to combat violence against women. Laudable goals, perhaps, but where's the economic stimulus? And the bill would double the amount spent on federal child-care subsidies. Brian Riedl, a budget expert with the Heritage Foundation, quips, "Maybe it's to help future Obama cabinet secretaries, so that they don't have to pay taxes on their nannies."

Perhaps spending $6 billion on university building projects will put some unemployed construction workers to work, but how does a $15 billion expansion of the Pell Grant program meet the standard of "temporary, timely, and targeted"? Another provision would allocate an extra $1.2 billion to a "youth" summer-jobs program -- and increase the age-eligibility limit from 21 to 24. Federal job-training programs -- despite a long track record of failure -- come in for $4 billion total in additional funding through the stimulus.

Of course, it wouldn't be a liberal wish list if it didn't include something for ACORN, and sure enough, there is $5.2 billion for community-development block grants and "neighborhood stabilization activities," which ACORN is eligible to apply for. Finally, the bill allocates $650 million for activities related to the switch from analog to digital TV, including $90 million to educate "vulnerable populations" that they need to go out and get their converter boxes or lose their TV signals. Obviously, this is stimulative stuff: Any economist will tell you that you can't get higher productivity and economic growth without access to reruns of Family Feud.

Summary:
$50 million for the National Endowment for the Arts
$380 million in the Senate bill for the Women, Infants and Children program
$300 million for grants to combat violence against women
$2 billion for federal child-care block grants
$6 billion for university building projects
$15 billion for boosting Pell Grant college scholarships
$4 billion for job-training programs, including $1.2 billion for "youths" up to the age of 24
$1 billion for community-development block grants
$4.2 billion for "neighborhood stabilization activities"
$650 million for digital-TV coupons; $90 million to educate "vulnerable populations"

 

POORLY DESIGNED TAX RELIEF
The stimulus package's tax provisions are poorly designed and should be replaced with something closer to what the Republican Study Committee in the House has proposed. Obama would extend some of the business tax credits included in the stimulus bill Congress passed about a year ago, and this is good as far as it goes. The RSC plan, however, also calls for a cut in the corporate-tax rate that could be expected to boost wages, lower prices, and increase profits, stimulating economic activity across the board.

The RSC plan also calls for a 5 percent across-the-board income-tax cut, which would increase productivity by providing additional incentives to save, work, and invest. An across-the-board payroll-tax cut might make even more sense, especially for low- to middle-income workers who don't make enough to pay income taxes. Obama's "Making Work Pay" tax credit is aimed at helping these workers, but it uses a rebate check instead of a rate cut. Rebate checks are not effective stimulus, as we discovered last spring: They might boost consumption, a little, but that's all they do.

Finally, the RSC proposal provides direct tax relief to strapped families by expanding the child tax credit, reducing taxes on parents' investment in the next generation of taxpayers. Obama's expansion of the child tax credit is not nearly as ambitious. Overall, his plan adds up to a lot of forgone revenue without much stimulus to show for it. Senators should push for the tax relief to be better designed.

Summary:
$15 billion for business-loss carry-backs
$145 billion for "Making Work Pay" tax credits
$83 billion for the earned income credit

STIMULUS FOR THE GOVERNMENT
Even as their budgets were growing robustly during the Bush administration, many federal agencies couldn't find the money to keep up with repairs -- at least that's the conclusion one is forced to draw from looking at the stimulus bill. Apparently the entire capital is a shambles. Congress has already removed $200 million to fix up the National Mall after word of that provision leaked out and attracted scorn. But one fixture of the mall -- the Smithsonian -- dodged the ax: It's slated to receive $150 million for renovations.

The stimulus package is packed with approximately $7 billion worth of federal building projects, including $34 million to fix up the Commerce Department, $500 million for improvements to National Institutes of Health facilities, and $44 million for repairs at the Department of Agriculture. The Agriculture Department would also get $350 million for new computers -- the better to calculate all the new farm subsidies in the bill (see "Pure pork" below).

One theme in this bill is superfluous spending items coated with green sugar to make them more palatable. Both NASA and NOAA come in for appropriations that properly belong in the regular budget, but this spending apparently qualifies for the stimulus bill because part of the money from each allocation is reserved for climate-change research. For instance, the bill grants NASA $450 million, but it states that the agency must spend at least $200 million on "climate-research missions," which raises the question: Is there global warming in space?

The bottom line is that there is a way to fund government agencies, and that is the federal budget, not an "emergency" stimulus package. As Riedl puts it, "Amount allocated to the Census Bureau? $1 billion. Jobs created? None."

Summary:
$150 million for the Smithsonian
$34 million to renovate the Department of Commerce headquarters
$500 million for improvement projects for National Institutes of Health facilities
$44 million for repairs to Department of Agriculture headquarters
$350 million for Agriculture Department computers
$88 million to help move the Public Health Service into a new building
$448 million for constructing a new Homeland Security Department headquarters
$600 million to convert the federal auto fleet to hybrids
$450 million for NASA (carve-out for "climate-research missions")
$600 million for NOAA (carve-out for "climate modeling")
$1 billion for the Census Bureau

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